lundi 11 avril 2011

Technical Analysis USD / JPY

USD / JPY broke its upward slant and completed a pullback on the support at 85. We treat only maintain long as support is 84.33. The break of 86 would give a new buying signal. Conversely, if 84.33 is broken, we will be neutral.

Technical Analysis EUR/USD

The EUR / USD continued its upward rally and validated on Friday a bullish break of 1.44 providing a new buying signal.
All indicators are bullish.
We keep advising process only long positions as the price will remain located above 1.4350.
Maintaining the current above 1.44 will strengthen our bullishness on parity.
An upward break of the resistance located next to 1.45 then offer a new buy signal for an extension of the upward movement towards 1.46.

vendredi 8 avril 2011

Carrefour: A negative analyst before the quarterly figures

The Credit Suisse is always negative of Carrefour, they value 30 euros per share, slightly below current levels. The broker anticipates 24.66 billion euros in turnover in the publication of the Q1 figures on April 14 this year, growing by 3.7% as reported and 1.4% excluding currency and gasoline. Organic growth should reach 2.5%, however, restated a negative calendar effect. Comparison with previous figures may be complicated by the reorganization.

A barrel of oil could flaming beyond the 130 dollars ...

Oil prices have not finished flaming ... It's unless the result of a survey by Reuters shows that the barrel is expected to exceed 130$ by the end of 2011. A trader of five provides even that a barrel back to 150$ this year!

It is the persistent troubles in the Arab world that grows the majority of the 32 traders, analysts and fund managers surveyed expected a New surge in the current year. Futures contracts on Brent already won nearly eight dollars over the last five days to established at 122.50 dollars , depassing the limit of 120$ for the first time since 2008 this week.

A barrel for 130$ would affect consumer confidence and undermine the growth of the countries most dependent on black gold, starting with the U.S. leading consumer of oil. Impact on growth from 0.5 to 0.75 percentage point is mentioned ...

Wall Street ended slightly lower, the Dow Jones lost 0.14%

U.S stocks ended slightly lower Thursday, another earthquake in Japan has revived the fears about the nuclear crisis, but the decline was contained by optimism about the U.S economy.

The Dow Jones has sold 0.14% or 17.26 points at 12,409.49 points, the Standard & Poor's 500 dropped 0.15% or 2.03 points to 1,333.51 points and the Nasdaq Composite Index declined by 0.13% or 3.68 points, to 2796.14 points.

A powerful magnitude of 7.4 earthquake struck Thursday night north-eastern Japan, but the notice issued tsunami warning for the coasts of the region was lifted and nothing unusual was detected for time in coastal nuclear power plants.

In addition, better than expected figures on the distribution in March have limited market losses. Sales in the distribution comparable number of stores rose 1.7% in March, according to a sample of 25 distributors. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected a decline of 0.7%.

This is the 19th month of increase in comparable stores.

Costco Wholesale has exceeded expectations, the action has finished up 3.8% to 77.82 dollars.

Bed Bath & Beyond jumped 10.5% to 54.55 dollars after posting a forecast of annual profit above expectations.

Trading volumes were moderate with a little over $ 7 billion on the NYSE, the NYSE Amex and Nasdaq , against an average estimated at 8.47 billion last year.

The VIX volatility index has gained 1.1%.

General Electric has sold nearly 1% despite the expected announcement of the construction of the largest manufacturing of photovoltaic panels in the United States in order to become a major player.

Mid-session Paris, the CAC 40 is headed for a new week higher

The European markets continue to ignore the generally bad news, keeping a positive interpretation of the economical situation with the example of the call for help of Portugal officially formulated ​​to the European Union. Bruxelles has in fact received the formal request of the country on Friday , indicated Olli Rehn,The European Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs.
Raising interest rates from the ECB yesterday does not prevent the CAC 40 in advance, +0.7% at midday to 4058 points, which allows for instant display a slight increase on the week. The markets also seem to be reassured about the tone of the speech of the President of the ECB which has left guessing about the extent of further rate increases. Another highlight of this weekend, the sharp rise of oil to over 111$ for WTI and 124$ for Brent, is currently support for markets by increasing it causes the values ​​of sector. No major statistical follow today.

mardi 5 avril 2011

Oil prices finished slightly lower in New York

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S crude oil ended slightly lower after a volatile session on Tuesday in the New York market while Brent continued at the same time his advance because of the violence in the Middle East and North Africa.

The May contract ended on a loss of 13 cents, or 0.12%, to 108, $ 34 a barrel. Upon the closure of the New York Mercantile Exchange, Brent took $ 0.89 (0.74%) to 121.95 dollars.

The volumes traded in the U.S oil market remained well below the averages of 30 and on 250 days and significantly lower than the Brent.

U.S crude has suffered from the prospect of increasing the reserves of crude in the U.S, analysts expect a increase of 1.7 million barrels last week.

The concerns about a possible drop in demand from China, born of higher rates decided by the Chinese central bank, however, have not eclipsed concerns about the oil supply in light of what is happening in Libya, Yemen or Nigeria.

Wall Street: progressing with the "fusacqs", while waiting the Fed

Wall Street returns to the green on Tuesday , with a news always expanded of mergers and acquisitions dominated by Texas Instruments agreement / National Semiconductor and the deal Procter & Gamble / Diamond Foods. Apple hesitates New York Stock Exchange, on arbitrations of managers resulting from its lower weighting in the Nasdaq 100. The DJIA is gaining 0.25% to 12,431 pts, while the Nasdaq is 0.51% at 2,803 points.

The ISM index of U.S services for the month of March 2011 came out fairly well below the consensus at 57.3 against 59.8 expected and 59.7 a month earlier. The indicator therefore reflects an unexpected slowdown in business growth in services to the U.S. last month. However, the index remains on the 50 bar and therefore continues to indicate expansion.

The index of activity / production fell to 59.7 in March from 66.9 in February. The indicator for new orders fell to 64.1, against 64.4. The employment index fell to 53.7, against 55.6 in February. The index fell to 72.1 against 73.3.

About 20 hours, the Fed will release minutes from its latest monetary policy meeting, when operators are trying to evaluate the timing of a potential tightening in a context of recovery and higher inflation.

The Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, has reaffirmed yesterday that ,according to hem , the current surge in prices, linked to higher commodity prices ,should not last: "I think the rise in the inflation will be transitory. Our view at this stage is that in the medium term, inflation will still be a little weak, "he said in a speech.

However, the officer added that the Fed will "monitor closely" inflation and inflation expectations in order to act quickly, if necessary, suggesting that the central bank will not hesitate to raise rates (currently set between 0% and 0.2%) if inflation continues to climb ... Observations that have prompted an uptick in the dollar, which returns about 0.2% against the Euro this morning at $ 1.4195 per 1 Euro.

However, the tone of Bernanke's speech suggests that the Fed has no plans to discontinue its quantitative easing program (QE2), which involves buying $ 600 billion in assets (government bonds particular) on the market by June ... Some voices were raised in recent days to request a suspension of the program given the recovery of the U.S. economy and inflationary risks that entails.

lundi 4 avril 2011

Wall Street ends in a small increase, while waiting the results

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S stocks finished marginally higher Monday after a meeting mainly characterized by a form of attention, investors are preparing for both of the quarterly results and the decision on rates European Central Bank on Thursday.

The Dow Jones industrials gained 30 0.19% or 23.31 points at 12,400.03. In contrast, the S & P-500, wider took 0.46 points, or 0.03%, to 1332.87. The Nasdaq Composite fell on his side in 0.41 point (-0.01%) to 2789.19.

The S & P 500, which recorded one of its best weekly performance last week in favor of good employment figures for the month in March to the United States, has stumbled on the ceiling of 1,333 points, a level that it has not reached close since mid-February.

This is however twice the lowest in 12 years hit in March 2009 and is no longer very far from the 1344 peak of 2011, its highest since June 2008.

According to Bruce Zaro, technical analyst at Delta Global Asset Management, the quarterly earnings season, which begins next week, could push the S & P 500 beyond the 1,400 mark by mid-May.

Concerned by the trend in inflation, the European Central Bank (ECB) will raise its rates next week, and twice reoffend by the end of the year, according to a Reuters poll published last week.

Following the strong employment figures released Friday , Some people think that the Federal Reserve will take less time than expected to follow the lead of the ECB.

Due to the absence of major economic indicators but also because to the continuing nuclear crisis in Japan and political violence in North Africa and the Middle East, volumes remain very low on Wall Street.

Those of last week were the lowest weekly volume since the beginning of the year.

Pfizer closed up 0.79% to 20.54 dollars after announcing the sale of its subsidiary Capsugel world's leading manufacturer to hard gelatin capsules, the American Fund KKR private equity (+1.41%) to nearly $ 2.38 billion.

In the technology sector, another investment fund Apax Partners announced the acquisition of Epicor Software Group as well as unlisted Activant Solution for a total to some two billion dollars to create an entity better able to compete with Oracle and SAP in the market for enterprise software.

The title Epicor jumped 11.74% to 12.56 dollars.

After the close, Texas Instruments has announced the acquisition of National Semiconductor for $ 6.5 billion in cash.

Clôsure Wall Street : Nasdaq -0,01%; Dow Jones +0,19%

Wall Street consolidated on Monday, after its recent gains. Crude prices exceeded $ 108 a barrel on the Nymex. Traders remained attentive to the news of mergers and acquisitions, with the hostile bid from Nasdaq and the Intercontinental Exchange to NYSE Euronext, the wedding Sanofi / Genzyme, but also a multitude of medium-sized operations reflecting the renewed confidence of investors and businesses. The DJIA took 0.19% closing at 12,400 points, while the Nasdaq flexed from 0.01% to 2789 pts.

Charles Evans, the leader of the Chicago Fed held on CNBC that the plan QE2 of monetary easing in the U.S. Central Bank was properly sized to 600 billion dollars. Evans seems to suggest that he should lead the program to completion, without the extension. The official also said that monetary policy could remain accommodative with inflation excluding volatile items expected at 1.5% in 2011.

According to the U.S. Department of Labor on Friday, the United States has created in March 2011 approximately 216,000 non-agricultural jobs, against a consensus of around 191,000. The unemployment rate dropped meanwhile to 8.8% last month. Job creations were for professional services and enterprise, health, recreation and mining segment in particular. Employment in manufacturing compartment continued to grow.

The number of jobless people totaled 13.5 million in March for the United States unemployment rate in 8.8%, containing 8.9% consensus among economists instead.

The creation in posts for February 2011 are revised up slightly to 194,000, against 192,000 previously estimated. The unemployment rate in late February was 8.9%. The creations are adjusted in January to 68,000, against 63,000 previously measured.

Forex Technical Analysis of 04 april 2011

Here is a summary of all technical indicators and forex summarizing a glance the status of major currencies exchange market for the day 04/04/2011.

And especially do not forget to place your orders!
Good trades to all.

EUR/USD
The last week has been positive for the euro, after recording a low of 1.4020 last Monday, has appreciated until Friday. The highest weekly was reached Friday with a EUR / USD 1.4245. The high pressure always latent in Portugal and Ireland have failed to affect the single currency, market participants are focusing more on a possible rise in interest rates this week. On Monday, we maintain a bullish view for the euro against the dollar, with the significant resistance of 1.4295 in the first line of sight. Any return on technical support 1.4150 is liable to offer a good buying opportunity.

USD/JPY

The yen has continued to lose ground against the greenback last week, from 81.33 to 84.72, the highest since six months. The dollar was well supported, mainly Friday by the positive employment figures. To the euro, the yen has also suffered from touching 119.40, the highest for almost a year. The American economy is doing better, and for this reason the yen has been somewhat abused. The the yen falling is expected to continue in the coming days. The USD / JPY is expected over 85.00, with the 85.40 resistance point. The support is set at 83.20. The EUR / JPY should range between 118.00 and 122.00. 

The economic news of April 4, 2011


News rather charged last Friday, especially in the area of sovereign debt.

The rating agency Fitch lowered the rating by three notches from Portugal, bringing A-to BBB-, just one notch above the category of speculative investments.

Standard & Poor's also intervened by lowering the sovereign rating of BBB + to Ireland (for the long term) and A-2 (for the short term). The agency has attached to this note a stable outlook. A restructuring of the Irish debt may soon be investigated by Brussels.

On the economic front, the main macroeconomic indicator of Friday's meeting was the publication of the unemployment rate in the United States in March, which reached its lowest level since 2009 at 8.8% while economists were expecting a continuation unemployment at 8.9%.

Finally, the FOMC meeting of the Fed is looming and speeches accumulate. Jeffrey Lacker has hinted that rate hikes could occur before the end of the year because of rising inflation. The president of the Philadelphia Fed has trumped by stating that an increase is probable but it would depend heavily on "how things evolve in the months ahead. "

Sanofi offer closes on Genzyme and harvest 84.6%


Sanofi-Aventis said Monday the closure of its offer for Genzyme, which has netted 84.6% of the shares of the American biotech with a proposed 74$ and a certificate of conditional value (CCV) by title.

The offer had been extended by the French pharmaceutical group, and expired on April 1. It is reopened until April 7 to 18 pm New York time, to allow remaining shareholders to tender their shares, said the French group in a statement.

Sanofi-Aventis has finally agreed in the middle of February to pay  20.1 billion dollar (14.8 billion euros) to acquire Genzyme , an amount which is added to an additional price related to the success of major steps drugs in American society.

After more than seven months of negotiations, an agreement had finally been reached with the introduction of a certificate of conditional value attached to particular performance Lemtrada, an experimental treatment for multiple sclerosis developed by Genzyme.

The transaction, unanimously approved by boards of directors of both companies, is the second largest in the history of biotech.

It reduces the likelihood of Sanofi perform other operations on this scale in the coming months.

"When you spend $ 20 billion, it really calls the strategy (...). The transactions of one or two billion, it does not have the flexibility of the group, but 20 billion, it prevents us from making other transactions "said Sanofi CEO, Chris Viehbacher Monday in an interview on BFM radio business.

"Clearly, Genzyme was a gamble (...). Sanofi fundamentals still very strong and had the means. From time to time, we must take some risks to build a future, " he added.

At 11:53, the Sanofi fell by 0.16% to 50.20 euros in a market capitalization of 65.8 billion euros. The stock gained 5% since the beginning of the year, after losing 13% in 2010.
 

samedi 2 avril 2011

Tunindex closing on a decline of 1.2%

Tunindex, in the stock market of Tunis (BVMT),ended this at 4 394.79 points, registering a decline of 1.20% against a slight increase 0.99% the previous week.

According to the site of the BVMT,In terms of trade, the volume of transactions on the Stock Exchange has increased to $ 24 million dinars after the exchange of 2 million 151 thousand shares against 15 million dinars last week.

Since the beginning of 2011, Tunindex, fell 14.04% against an increase of 9.47% over the same period of 2010.

Despite this aspect of trade, the liquidity ratio declined from 62.10% to 50.11% and the ratio of satisfaction (decreased by 69.69% to 65.09%.

The review of changes in quoted shares reached values ​​higher than 13, against 37 declines.

The largest gains accrue to the shares of the following companies: Insurance ASTREE who won 12.5% ​​to 71.930 Dt, Tunisia Milk took 7.14% to 4.8 Dt and SOTRAPIL (transport company of hydrocarbons by pipelines) rose of 4.14% to 11.560 Dt.

The boss of Ford has earned $ 26.5 million in 2010

The Director General of Ford Alan Mulally received a remuneration of $ 26.5 million (18.6 million euros) last year, an increase of 48%.

Alan Mulally, who has taken the lead of U.S. carmaker in 2006, is regarded as the man who righted the group and had no recourse to public funds during the crisis, unlike its competitors General Motors and Chrysler Affiliated group.

The UAW auto union president Bob King said last week that Alan Mulally's pay was "scandalous" and "morally wrong" while some workers receive 15 dollars per hour (10.50 euros).

As for the group's chairman, Bill Ford, its earnings rose 57% to $ 26.4 million, including a salary of $ 4.8 million.

Ford posted a net profit of $ 6.6 billion in 2010